The World Cup final is just a few hours away, and the football world is buzzing over who will lift the title — Argentina or Spain. The latest prediction from Opta’s supercomputer has added fresh fuel to the debate.
Football statistics firm Opta has simulated the Argentina-Spain final 25,000 times, with Spain edging ahead by a small margin.
According to the supercomputer, Luis de la Fuente’s side have a 59.6 percent chance of winning the title, compared to 40.4 percent for defending champions Argentina.
The simulation gives Spain a 45 percent chance of winning within the scheduled 90 minutes, with a 29 percent chance of the match ending in a draw and a 26 percent chance of an Argentina win in regulation time.
According to Opta’s analysts, the biggest factor behind Spain’s edge is their team balance and defensive strength. Spain have conceded just 0.31 expected goals (xG) per match at this World Cup — the joint-lowest figure in World Cup history since 1966, a record they share with Uruguay’s 1990 campaign.
“Despite winning every match at the tournament, Argentina have clearly shown they are not invincible. Spain, on the other hand, can control possession and effectively neutralize their opponents’ attacks,” Opta wrote.
Still, beyond the statistics, there’s strong evidence in Argentina’s favor too. This will be their sixth World Cup final appearance. Lionel Scaloni’s side have won seven consecutive matches this tournament to reach the final, and if they can retain the title they won in 2022, Argentina will become only the third team in history — after Italy and Brazil — to win back-to-back World Cups.
Spain, meanwhile, are chasing their second World Cup title, hoping to add another star after their first triumph in South Africa in 2010. The team remains unbeaten in 37 consecutive official matches, with goalkeeper Unai Simón having kept six clean sheets — a statistic Opta views as a major point in Spain’s favor.
Another major draw of the final could be the potential head-to-head battle between Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal. Should both start, it would mark the first time in World Cup final history that two players from opposing teams, with an age gap of more than 20 years, have both featured in the starting lineups. Messi, 39, and Yamal, 19 — one representing perhaps the final chapter of a legendary career, the other possibly the dawn of a new era.
In Opta’s words: “Messi vs. Yamal could be the biggest story of the match. Messi is a symbol of both the past and the present, while Yamal represents the future.”
But supercomputer predictions don’t always hold true — the odds have shifted several times throughout this World Cup. Before the tournament began, France were considered the biggest favorites, while Argentina were given the slimmest chance of even reaching the semi-finals.
Yet Messi’s performances on the pitch have upended those early calculations. So even though Spain lead in the latest predictions, the numbers suggest the race for the title remains wide open.
